Monday, December 7, 2015

Whose prediction will come true in this T20 game called “Human life on earth”?


Prediction A- 

In the light of recent Chennai floods, the Newspapers were flooded with articles titled “Chennai floods are an ecological wake up call ”, “ಚೆನ್ನೈ ಜಲ ಪ್ರಳಯ ಮಾನವ ನಿರ್ಮಿತ ” etc etc. So there is a large set of people who claims that we are on a decline and current state state of affairs is unsustainable -  be it burning of fossils leading to global warming, excessive urbanization , materialism, unhealthy dietary habits and so on and so forth. Therefore if the current trends are not stopped or reversed, humanity will cease to survive on this planet. And the solution they propose is to have more and more sustainable practices. Replace urban life with rural life, farming with industries, natural remedies(Eg:Ayurveda) with Allopathy. In a nutshell, go back in time and live a life that existed 300yrs go (before industrial revolution) and with that humanity will live for a long long time.
My own take here is that I don't refute any of the above claims or even the proposed solution. But I highly doubt the feasibility of the proposed solution. I feel we have crossed the point of no return and it's quite impossible to recreate the life humanity lived 300 yrs ago even though a handful of people are choosing sustainable ways of living and hoping it creates a worldwide change.

Prediction B-

On the other hand, there is a large set of people who are very optimists about the chances of humanity surviving on this planet. They highlight things like – Exponential technological growth (Moore's law), raising standards of living due to economic growth, increase in average life span, increased access to education and health, technological solution to health care and replacement of fossil fuels by clean energy, artificial intelligence etc etc etc. So the solution they propose to the man made problems like global warming and other things mentioned above is to further accelerate the technological growth so that we can fix the problems (created by us). Again, I don't refute any of the above claims but I highly doubt the feasibility of the solution. Whether the accelerated technological growth keep creating problems at a pace, which the pace at which solutions are created fail to catch up?

To evaluate which of the predictions might actually come true, is a hard enough job and it might not yield any conclusive result. Only time can tell whether we will actually go back and live a life similar to that existed 300 yrs back or technological growth solves the looming problems or we all reach “The End”.

Why call a T20 game?

"Human life on Earth" has been a test match till now. A slow and steady game and thereby establishing a pattern. But I feel the nature of the game has changed to a T20 format(a very short format) because a few major serendipitous technological discovery might greatly influence future in a way that the current problems might cease to challenge our existence and similarly if the climatic changes becomes so acute in short span, we might lose control which can lead to total annihilation. So in such a format, luck and random factors play a very important role that predictions cannot be done with great accuracy. It's almost impossible for Zimbabwe to defeat Australia in a test match whereas it's possibility increases when it comes to a T20 match. So whether we end up surviving or not, we will never come to know whose arguments were closer to reality as far as the present is concerned.


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